The IPCC expert group has just published the final part of its 6th report, which focuses in particular on greenhouse gas emissions and solutions to reduce them. While previous parts concluded that global warming was accelerating and populations were increasingly vulnerable, this latest report alerts us to the urgency of action.
What is the IPCC?
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, created in 1988, brings together 195 member states that study the impact of human activity on global warming. It publishes scientific reports whose conclusions are addressed to decision-makers and the general public. While these conclusions are a warning, they also help countries to commit to combating global warming by taking measures. The scientists who make up the IPCC come from various specialties: economics, science, energy, etc. These disciplines are divided into 3 groups, each of which provides a section of each report: WG1, WG2 or WG3 for "working group". Group 1 studies the scientific and physical aspects and analyzes past, present and future data. Group 2 focuses on the vulnerability of our modern societies but also on ecosystems and socio-economic systems in the face of global warming and their consequences in terms of adaptation. Finally, group 3 focuses on techniques and solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for climate change. The 5th The report showed the disproportionate impact that an increase in temperatures of +1.5° would have.
How are IPCC reports valuable?
The report of group 3, released last April (2022), concerns solutions and recommendations to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and thus limit global warming to +1.5°. A figure that had been set by the various states during the Paris Agreement in 2015.
These IPCC reports are valuable because they come at a time when we are running out of time to address the problem. They report truths that are sometimes inconvenient but underscore the urgency of the situation.
They are read by political decision-makers, which gives them a considerable impact on decisions taken in terms of ecology. The indisputable expertise of these reports explains why governments rely on their data and follow their diagnoses. In addition, these reports are used in the press. Summarized and popularized, they inform citizens and are involved in many awareness-raising events. Part 3 of the latest report presents the solutions needed to avoid the climate, ecological and social catastrophe that is already underway.
Latest IPCC report: urgent!
This final part of the latest IPCC report was written by nearly 300 experts based on the study of approximately 18,000 scientific articles. The report is presented in the form of 3 documents: a summary intended for decision-makers, a technical summary and a full report with 17 chapters: Introduction, Emissions factors, Long-term pathways, Short-term pathways, Social aspects, Energy, Agriculture, Cities, Buildings, Transport, Industry, Intersectoral perspectives, Policies & institutions, International cooperation, Finance, Innovation and Accelerating the transition. This report sounds the alarm by highlighting that we have taken a direction that is not compatible with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. It is therefore imperative to initiate global multi-sectoral policies supported by all possible actors at all possible levels, on a global and regional scale. Only profound changes will make it possible, by reducing GHG emissions , to eventually achieve our objectives. However, each year that passes without reducing climate risks makes them worse and leads to negative (and costly) consequences for society.
Some states are still struggling to really put the brakes on. The proof: 17% of all greenhouse gases emitted since 1850 have been emitted in the last 10 years and continue to increase. It is clear: current policies are not enough to hope to reach the threshold of +1.5°C. To stay below the +2°C threshold, we would have to have reduced our emissions by 37% within 10 years!
How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ?
GHGs such as CO2, methane and nitrous oxide, are positioned above the Earth like a cloud that acts as a cover. By preventing infrared rays (and their heat) from passing through them to escape into the atmosphere, they are responsible for global warming. However, their emissions continue to increase. The report shows that it is the richest populations who are most responsible because of their very "carbon-intensive" consumption and cites that only 10% of the world's population emits 36-45% of GHGs. In underdeveloped countries, an inhabitant emits on average 1.7 tonnes of CO2 per year, compared to... 13 in developed countries! The experts also stressed the need not to develop the use of fossil resources (gas, oil, coal) responsible for GHG emissions, but also and above all to stop certain current machines and infrastructures which, if we continue to use them without changing anything, will make us exceed the threshold of +1.5°C. And the report specifies that we must reduce our GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 to remain below 1.5°C...
A goal incompatible with our trajectories
To achieve the +1.5°C target, the implementation of global climate policies and the rapid development of low-carbon systems are essential.
Unfortunately, since countries have not changed in time, and the efforts being so disproportionate to change trajectory, it is less and less likely that we will succeed, the report tells us. The latter underlines that we must not give up: even if beyond +1.5°C the damage will be considerable and partly irreparable, limiting warming below 2°C will be preferable anyway. But to stop at +2°, it is 1/3 of our emissions that must be reduced. The report indicates that the carbon tax would be a useful tool insofar as it does not impact employment or GDP. To achieve this, we would also have to stop investing in coal, oil and gas, "decarbonize" electricity production, and use as many electrical activities as possible to reduce CO2 emissions.
How can we change our behavior?
For the first time, the IPCC devotes a chapter to social and societal issues. The experts explain that it is imperative to change consumption patterns because technological progress alone will not be enough to reduce them. And this is all the more so since it is possible to change behaviors without compromising on comfort. The report proposes to adopt the trio: Avoid-Shift-Improve, in French, "avoid - transform - improve". By applying this principle to all sectors, it would be possible to reduce emissions significantly. For individuals, this implies: reducing the use of airplanes and cars in favor of public transport, walking or cycling, reducing meat consumption , modulating the use of heating and air conditioning, and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. Note in the transport sector: while we are increasingly electrifying, particularly cars, the use of fossil fuel in aviation and maritime transport remains a weak point in the ongoing decarbonization. IPCC experts estimate that biofuels and synthetic fuels will still be used too little and kerosene too present in 2050 for emissions from this sector to be reduced sufficiently. On the food side, meat consumption must be reduced because methane (emitted by livestock) has an atmospheric warming power 80 times greater than carbon dioxide!
Necessary sobriety
The report highlights that to change the habits of the population it is necessary to use societal and economic levers. It warns against the boom-bust effect of savings linked to the circular economy, which could be reinvested in products whose production emits GHGs. IPCC experts also highlighted the need to adopt sobriety in everyday life, that is to say to adopt a lifestyle whose energy consumption is as low as possible, both for individuals and businesses , particularly in the construction sector. Indeed, this sector represented 21% of global GHG emissions in 2019, because of the systems used and the production methods of the materials consumed. The report recalls the interest of combined renovation and construction approaches to move towards low-carbon buildings. The report also showed that social justice is a key element in managing the negative impacts of global warming. Finally, thefood sector also represents a large share of global emissions and requires changes to be made at all stages of production, including the end of the life cycle, i.e. waste management.
How to get out of fossil fuels and absorb CO2?
The report shows that we need to transform our energy systems and reduce the use of fossil fuels (gas, coal and oil) as much as possible since they are responsible for GHG emissions, but it highlights the financial aspect. While fossil fuels benefit from strong investments, the sectors that concern the transition much less. The idea is both to tax CO2 emissions, which could be a strong enough measure to drastically reduce emissions, but also to direct capital towards the transition. While the use of electricity from renewable sources is growing, experts warn of the risk of limiting ourselves to them alone. The report also lists the levers for reducing emissions, such as the increase in electric cars and heat pumps, the closure of coal-fired power stations, the use of biomass or even "Carbon Capture and Sequestration". For example, agriculture is a lever sector that can play a balancing role to both reduce its own CO2 emissions, but also and above all deploy CO2 absorption techniques via "carbon sinks" such as reforestation for example. The latter has many ecological advantages to offset emissions but which are not sufficient to achieve the necessary carbon neutrality . The sea is another natural "carbon sink" and developing plankton that can capture CO2 would make it possible to maintain this enormous carbon dioxide reservoir.
Urbanization needs to be rethought
Urbanization is responsible for a large share of GHG emissions, but it continues to increase to the detriment of nature: the transformation and control of urban development are a promising lever to limit global warming. Some techniques aim at resource-efficient development that would reduce GHG emissions, others could increase the density of cohabitation for more compact growth. A total and absolute transformation will nevertheless be necessary to achieve low or zero emissions, and the report recommends 3 axes to achieve this. It will be necessary to reduce energy consumption systemically, to make a transition to more electricity systems and to integrate carbon absorption. Given the concentration of activity and population in cities, these changes have a lot of room for improvement.
This last part of the 6th IPCC report is undoubtedly the most complete and the most valuable with its clear and precise recommendations. We must change, and quickly. But above all, the report insists on the need for a global, transversal and worldwide action also including the financial aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Experts point out that taking action is in the best interests of the world, while placing the principles of equity and social justice at the heart of the discussions. However, for decarbonization to be effective on a global scale, international cooperation and cross-cutting actions are required. Experts are clear: the agreements that have been made are not enough to achieve the necessary change.
